As I note out several times, I am comparing station to station fare combinations. I'm limited to only looking at station combinations because, as you point out, Metro hasn't released any station to station traffic data.

I'm also not trying to project Metro income. The increases in station pairs are in some instances, though, much higher than the 5% that has been quoted by various news sources.

I would welcome the data necessary to make the comparisons more meaningful – but lacking additional input to render more accurate statistics – rather than wait for July 1 (like the mainstream media are) – imperfect information for the ridership fills the null space.

Think of it this way – if you look at Shady Grove alone, nearly every fare is going up (everything past Bethesda). But riders from Shady Grove aren't going to 50% of those station pairings (probably more). Nearly all riders from Shady Grove are going to somewhere else on the Red Line or one of the core stations on another line. Your calculation assumes that riders from Shady Grove are evenly distributed to every station.

You would need to get the ridership by station combination data (of course WMATA sucks and doesn't release it like BART does) in order to really say "Many of you will be paying more for the new Peak fares than you did for peak of the peak!"